S&P500 DCF
Valued as a claim on total shareholder (dividends plus buybacks) discounted back at a range of costs of capital. What would the CAGR have to be to offset valuation pressure? Further, what does the cost of capital change regarding the 5Y CAGR?
Grows at the column rate over the forecast horizon then in perpetuity at the terminal rate, and the stream is discounted at the row rate. Cells where the discount rate does not exceed terminal growth have no finite value and read n/a.
Index level from ^GSPC; dividend yield
from SPY's trailing-12-month distributions. Buyback yield from trailing-12-month
repurchases aggregated across the current index members over their combined
market cap. Risk-free rate from ^TNX.
Refreshed on a schedule - the base date is shown above the matrix.
Trailing growth is measured across today's members only so it carries survivorship bias. Repurchases are gross unless the net basis is selected, and the net figure subtracts all equity issuance. Reported company figures lag the tape by up to a quarter. This is just an illustration of how price responds to assumptions